Bitcoin has interrupted a six-month bearish trend with a rally in March and April, aligning with broader equity market gains. However, technical analysis suggests this momentum does not yet signal the end of the current bear cycle. Historical precedents from 2014 and 2022 demonstrate that consecutive green months can occur without marking a structural bottom.
Key indicators, including the 1M RSI and 1M LMACD, remain aligned with bearish cycle characteristics. The current rally is occurring well above historical RSI support levels, and the LMACD has yet to produce a bullish cross. Furthermore, a cyclical time-analysis model suggests a potential bottom may not occur until October 2026.
From a technical standpoint, price action is hovering near the 1M MA50. Potential downside targets include the 1W MA350 and 1M MA100, establishing an estimated accumulation zone between $40,000 and $50,000. This cautious outlook persists despite the current Greed sentiment (Fear & Greed Index: 62), as long-term metrics have not yet confirmed a trend reversal.





